Impact of Unexpected In-House Major COVID-19 Outbreaks on Depressive Symptoms among Healthcare Workers: A Retrospective Multi-Institutional Study.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has significantly affected the mental health of healthcare workers (HCWs). The authors have provided psychosocial support to HCWs working in typical hospitals and nursing homes in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, where major COVID-19 outbreaks have occurred since December 2020. This study retrospectively examines depressive symptoms before psychosocial interventions among HCWs working at typical hospitals and nursing homes experiencing in-house major COVID-19 outbreaks. We have offered psychosocial support in eight hospitals and nursing homes, obtaining data on the mental health status of 558 HCWs using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. The study's results indicate that 29.4% of HCWs have exhibited moderate or higher depressive symptoms, and 10.2% had suicidal ideation. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that being a nurse was associated with higher depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation compared to other HCWs. In addition, multiple logistic regression analysis of Polymerase Chain Reaction-positive HCWs showed that being a nurse and the number of COVID-19-related symptoms was associated with high depressive symptoms. These results suggest that HCWs in typical hospitals and nursing homes experiencing major COVID-19 outbreaks are more likely to exhibit severe depressive symptoms, which may worsen if infected with COVID-19. This study's findings expand the current understanding of HCWs' depressive symptoms and the importance of psychosocial support during unexpected major outbreaks in healthcare facilities.

A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks.

Mathematical models are increasingly used throughout infectious disease outbreaks to guide control measures. In this review article, we focus on the initial stages of an outbreak, when a pathogen has just been observed in a new location (e.g., a town, region or country). We provide a beginner's guide to two methods for estimating the risk that introduced cases lead to sustained local transmission (i.e., the probability of a major outbreak), as opposed to the outbreak fading out with only a small number of cases. We discuss how these simple methods can be extended for epidemiological models with any level of complexity, facilitating their wider use, and describe how estimates of the probability of a major outbreak can be used to guide pathogen surveillance and control strategies. We also give an overview of previous applications of these approaches. This guide is intended to help quantitative researchers develop their own epidemiological models and use them to estimate the risks associated with pathogens arriving in new host populations. The development of these models is crucial for future outbreak preparedness. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations.

The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has only been limited human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here, we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected early in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]). However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.012 (credible interval [0, 0.099]). This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a global pandemic.